Geopolitical tensions drive demand for condominiums in Thailand in 2026 real estate market forecasts

Geopolitical uncertainty is changing demand for real estate in Southeast Asia, and Thailand is becoming the clear beneficiary. Despite wider economic pressures, demand for apartments in major markets is expected to grow, mainly driven by foreign buyers seeking stability, lifestyle and long-term security.

External demand remains the key factor. Data for 2025 shows that the volume of apartment transfers abroad amounted to 60.9 billion baht, which is 10.7% less than in the previous year, but foreign buyers still account for a significant share of the total cost. The conclusion is that demand has not disappeared, it is changing. Buyers are becoming more selective, prioritizing advantageous locations, high rental potential and safe jurisdictions, and Thailand is vetting all three options.

Global conflicts are pushing buyers into Thailand, which is considered politically stable compared to conflict zones, accessible to international buyers and based on lifestyle appeal and tourism recovery. This increases demand in Bangkok, Phuket, Pattaya, Koh Samui and Chiang Mai, turning many purchases into second home strategies rather than just investments.

Condominium markets outperform housing markets amid broader market pressures. Home transfers are forecast to continue to decline in 2026, domestic purchasing power remains weak and mortgage approvals for low-income buyers are tightening. However, apartments remain more sustainable due to lower entry prices, easier foreign ownership and high rental demand in urban and tourist areas. In short, condominiums are the most liquid segment of Thai real estate.

Developers are adjusting strategies to target foreign buyers and reduce new launches while prioritizing the cleanup of existing inventory. The market is moving from a volume focus to a buyer segment focus, with a focus on foreign investors, high net worth individuals and lifestyle-oriented buyers — structural change rather than temporary.

The recovery is led by prestigious regions, with demand concentrated in Bangkok's central business district, Phuket, Pattaya and the Eastern Economic Corridor. These markets promise higher returns and growing international demand, supported by infrastructure and tourism fundamentals, and are expected to outperform secondary markets.

Buyers are now prioritizing completed or near-completed properties, layouts with high floors and better facades, properties with confirmed rental demand, and foreign property ownership quotas. Speculative buying is cooling down as priority is given to practical revenue-based solutions.

The 2026 forecast suggests that Thailand's real estate market is developing rather than thriving. The above trends include rising external demand, limited domestic demand, the condominium sector outpacing land housing sales and the dominance of sales in prestigious locations. In general, Thailand has positioned itself as a regional haven for real estate investment, which is in line with buyer preferences in uncertain times.